Wednesday, January 5, 2011

MBIA and JP Morgan, Barclays: Settlement?

This would be consistent with Jay's comments of keeping settlements quiet. Multiple settlements in a quarter would make it more difficult to surmise the details of any one agreement. However, given the parties that have dropped out of the 78 proceedings, the lion's share should be coming from JP Morgan.

This deal makes particular sense at this point in the game because so much of the exposure is in CDS/CDO form for which MBIA has recognized zero benefits. So any recoveries will drop straight down into equity through income. This will occur in GAAP and statutory statements. Meanwhile, JP Morgan isn't in the same state of denial as some of its peers. Given the dark cloud that this litigation is creating for JP Morgan and like firms, there seems to be plenty of room for them to increase their recognized costs and still add value to their enterprise.

Still though, there may have been no settlement but rather just an acknowledgment of the hopelessness of the 78 suit paired with an intention to create goodwill with the team across the mortgage litigation table. But boy, it sure would make sense...

Thank you to Patrick McGee. He mentioned the possibility of a settlement in his article at the Bond Buyer:

http://www.bondbuyer.com/issues/120_3/mbia_insurance-1021754-1.html?ET=bondbuyer:e2681:2207096a:&st=email&utm_source=editorial&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BB_Daily_Briefing_010411

1 comment:

  1. JP Morgan isn't in the same state of denial as some of its peers. Given the dark cloud that this litigation is creating for JP Morgan and like firms, there seems to be plenty of room for them to increase their recognized costs and still add value to their enterprise.settlement quotes

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