Monday, February 7, 2011

RAM Model Q3 Review

RAM reported GAAP loss and loss adjustment expenses of $457k versus our model's prediction of $6,065k. This outperformance was not totally unexpected as there had been several positive developments in RAM specific exposure, while the model is a dumb extrapolation of ceding company statutory losses or ceded losses depending on the information available. As noted in the original Q3 model publication (here), Jefferson County Sewer was likely one large positive development in the quarter. The ceding primaries also have more exposure to structured finance as a percentage of their overall NPO. Finally, it is important to note that the model uses statutory numbers while RAM only reports GAAP numbers on a quarterly basis.

A Q4 model will be published shortly after all ceding primaries report. Unless that is, RAM Holdings common stock quintuples again, in which case I will try my best to publish the model sometime this year from Fiji. I imagine I'd have to get some type of 8G network Android phone for that.

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