Thursday, March 31, 2011

MICA Release; MGIC, Radian Data Compiled

MICA cure rate of 112% for February data landed squarely between rates reported earlier by MGIC and Radian of 115% and 109% respectively.

Compared to the same month in 2010, defaults dropped 30% from 68,675 to 48,086 reflecting credit burnout and an improving economy. Over the same time, cures dropped by 33% from 80,758 to 53,944 reflecting the expiration of federal modification programs and an aged delinquency inventory.

While this month shows near peak seasonal benefits, the last two years have not been so good for delinquency inventories. Since peaking in 2010 for most MIs, delinquency inventories have not aged like milk nor wine. Rather it has progressed more like Earl Gray tea; it certainly has not improved but at least it isn't rancid. The uncertainty surrounding this inventory remains extreme. Despite a slower start this year, we think this year will look better than last as portrayed in not only company loss developments but also cure rates.

On another note, both MGIC and Radian having reported several quarters of operating data so The Dragon has compiled that information. The links below have also been pasted on the "Links and Models" page. As always, we take no responsibility for our sloppy work.

MGIC Data:



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