Data released today for the month of March posted a 143.9% cure rate, the highest ever posted in available monthly data (compiled here) reaching back to December 1999. The YTD rate of 106.15% is also the highest and only above 100% reading since 1999, though full year cure rates above 100% were posted years 1989-1994. The highest full year rate of 110.8% was posted in 1992. Full year data goes back to 1989.
March comes in the strongest season of the year for cures and defaults which has been attributed to tax refunds, the beginning of housing's spring selling season, and weather-related employment amongst other things.
New policies issued increased 20% MoM (YoY data is not comparable), far outstripping home purchase activity. That increase also came before another FHA insurance price increase which will drive more high quality business into arms of private MI. This trend and continued pressure to reprivatize the mortgage market will likely help the industry write its way back to good health.
Showing posts with label MICA Data. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MICA Data. Show all posts
Friday, April 29, 2011
Thursday, March 31, 2011
MICA Release; MGIC, Radian Data Compiled
MICA cure rate of 112% for February data landed squarely between rates reported earlier by MGIC and Radian of 115% and 109% respectively.
Compared to the same month in 2010, defaults dropped 30% from 68,675 to 48,086 reflecting credit burnout and an improving economy. Over the same time, cures dropped by 33% from 80,758 to 53,944 reflecting the expiration of federal modification programs and an aged delinquency inventory.
While this month shows near peak seasonal benefits, the last two years have not been so good for delinquency inventories. Since peaking in 2010 for most MIs, delinquency inventories have not aged like milk nor wine. Rather it has progressed more like Earl Gray tea; it certainly has not improved but at least it isn't rancid. The uncertainty surrounding this inventory remains extreme. Despite a slower start this year, we think this year will look better than last as portrayed in not only company loss developments but also cure rates.
On another note, both MGIC and Radian having reported several quarters of operating data so The Dragon has compiled that information. The links below have also been pasted on the "Links and Models" page. As always, we take no responsibility for our sloppy work.
MGIC Data: https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AlFMaAd3v9o0dGdRWVBMVmIzVzJvbjMtdHdZM2NFb3c&hl=en_GB
Radian: https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AlFMaAd3v9o0dFU1a0pFNXlEZmhZN2FORWU3RjM2bUE&hl=en_GB
MICA: https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AlFMaAd3v9o0dGRjSGlrZ2NDNmlxU0VMNnNJYWliUXc&hl=en_GB&pli=1#gid=0
Compared to the same month in 2010, defaults dropped 30% from 68,675 to 48,086 reflecting credit burnout and an improving economy. Over the same time, cures dropped by 33% from 80,758 to 53,944 reflecting the expiration of federal modification programs and an aged delinquency inventory.
While this month shows near peak seasonal benefits, the last two years have not been so good for delinquency inventories. Since peaking in 2010 for most MIs, delinquency inventories have not aged like milk nor wine. Rather it has progressed more like Earl Gray tea; it certainly has not improved but at least it isn't rancid. The uncertainty surrounding this inventory remains extreme. Despite a slower start this year, we think this year will look better than last as portrayed in not only company loss developments but also cure rates.
On another note, both MGIC and Radian having reported several quarters of operating data so The Dragon has compiled that information. The links below have also been pasted on the "Links and Models" page. As always, we take no responsibility for our sloppy work.
MGIC Data: https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AlFMaAd3v9o0dGdRWVBMVmIzVzJvbjMtdHdZM2NFb3c&hl=en_GB
Radian: https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AlFMaAd3v9o0dFU1a0pFNXlEZmhZN2FORWU3RjM2bUE&hl=en_GB
MICA: https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AlFMaAd3v9o0dGRjSGlrZ2NDNmlxU0VMNnNJYWliUXc&hl=en_GB&pli=1#gid=0
Monday, February 28, 2011
January MICA Data Review
The most recent MICA data release points to continued improvement in the distressed mortgagor credit. The improvement in the January cure rate of 78.6% versus 68.1% a year ago was driven by a steep decrease in new defaults, partially offset by fewer cures. In our view, this represents a stabilized housing market and improved economy on the default side and the inevitable digestion of the foreclosure glut and expiration of HAMP on the cure side.
While uncertainty remains extreme regarding the ultimate sorting out of the shadow inventory, data points like this show that positive developments are more than possible. The potential for positive developments has also been highlighted by the recent rumors of foreclosure settlement talks between government authorities and securitization servicers.
January applications for private mortgage insurance were also up 32.7% versus a year earlier. Among other things, this reflects the price increase implemented by the HFA. Continued high quality market share growth will help insurers write themselves into better financial health. For that reason, The Blue Dragon plans to make a spreadsheet to track applications and policies issued in a similar manner to how we already track defaults and cures.
But for now, the most recent default and cure data has been added to the existing spreadsheet here.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
MICA Data - 2010 Locked In
It's official!
The Mortgage Insurance Companies of America reported a cure rate of 93.1% for 2010, just over 30 percentage points better than 2009's rate of 62.9%. It is also the highest rate since 1999.
See all the data compiled here:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AlFMaAd3v9o0dGRjSGlrZ2NDNmlxU0VMNnNJYWliUXc&hl=en#gid=0
The Mortgage Insurance Companies of America reported a cure rate of 93.1% for 2010, just over 30 percentage points better than 2009's rate of 62.9%. It is also the highest rate since 1999.
See all the data compiled here:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AlFMaAd3v9o0dGRjSGlrZ2NDNmlxU0VMNnNJYWliUXc&hl=en#gid=0
Monday, January 3, 2011
YTD Private MI Cure Data
A follow up to the data posted earlier.
Month Cures Defaults Monthly Rate YTD Cures YTD Defaults YTD Rate
January 61,195 98,685 62.0% 61,195 98,685 62.01%
February 80,758 68,675 117.6% 141,953 167,360 84.82%
March 77,909 63,126 123.4% 219,862 230,486 95.39%
April 66,170 60,656 109.1% 286,032 291,142 98.24%
May 65,436 60,346 108.4% 351,468 351,488 99.99%
June 60,337 65,792 91.7% 411,805 417,280 98.69%
July 56,086 68,862 81.4% 467,891 486,142 96.25%
August 58,094 63,882 90.9% 525,985 550,024 95.63%
Sept. 57,720 65,481 88.1% 583,705 615,505 94.83%
October 56,887 64,450 88.3% 640,592 679,955 94.21%
Nov 58,015 61,262 94.7% 698,607 741,217 94.25%
December
Earlier post: http://tapleysbluedragon.blogspot.com/2010/12/private-mi-cure-rate.html
Month Cures Defaults Monthly Rate YTD Cures YTD Defaults YTD Rate
January 61,195 98,685 62.0% 61,195 98,685 62.01%
February 80,758 68,675 117.6% 141,953 167,360 84.82%
March 77,909 63,126 123.4% 219,862 230,486 95.39%
April 66,170 60,656 109.1% 286,032 291,142 98.24%
May 65,436 60,346 108.4% 351,468 351,488 99.99%
June 60,337 65,792 91.7% 411,805 417,280 98.69%
July 56,086 68,862 81.4% 467,891 486,142 96.25%
August 58,094 63,882 90.9% 525,985 550,024 95.63%
Sept. 57,720 65,481 88.1% 583,705 615,505 94.83%
October 56,887 64,450 88.3% 640,592 679,955 94.21%
Nov 58,015 61,262 94.7% 698,607 741,217 94.25%
December
Earlier post: http://tapleysbluedragon.blogspot.com/2010/12/private-mi-cure-rate.html
Friday, December 31, 2010
Private MI Cure Rate
There is an ominous being, creator of all in my world. Call him my Boz. Or -by no means after the fashion of men in their projection of themselves onto their ideas of greater power, which only a heretic would attribute to a nature that makes it difficult to conceive of anything better than one's self- I'll just call him Tapley.
Tapley -since we are done with philosophy- spoke with Steve Smith -head muckity muck at PMI- for a handful or two of minutes in early March. At that time, he told the CEO of PMI he had compiled MICA cure rates since 1989 and noticed that the late 80's and early 90's were all above 100 percent as interest rates came down (until 94) and the economy and real estate markets rebounded. He then asked Mr. Smith if such rates could be repeated. Mr. Smith said -off cuff- that a repeat of such rate performance would require an unemployment rate 1 percentage point lower than consensus projections.
Here's the data Tapley referenced:
Period Cures Defaults Ratio
1989 231,505 218,693 105.9%
1990 237,408 219,983 107.9%
1991 232,598 223,442 104.1%
1992 229,647 207,352 110.8%
1993 212,944 200,776 106.1%
1994 251,182 249,292 100.8%
1995 257,201 285,265 90.2%
1996 297,950 327,629 90.9%
1997 337,067 360,038 93.6%
1998 351,438 383,041 91.7%
1999 207,313 218,565 94.9%
2000 298,534 374,754 79.7%
2001 399,003 471,159 84.7%
2002 499,719 562,860 88.8%
2003 512,127 568,315 90.1%
2004 433,657 517,560 83.8%
2005 408,189 517,900 78.8%
2006 415,101 519,834 79.9%
2007 411,845 624,076 66.0%
2008 516,838 884,231 58.5%
2009 686,353 1,091,960 62.9%
Well, here we are at the end of 2010. Unemployment has done anything but outperform this year and the MICA data virtually guaranty a better than 90% full year number. YTD the rate is 94.25%. Given the state of the labor and other markets, that's pretty darn good. And though it isn't above 100% I don't think Smith or many others would have expected such a high number given the backdrop.
I didn't post the Smith interview to question his expertise. He is an expert. And looking back at all the costly capital raising by his counterparts in the industry, they probably wouldn't have expected this good of performance either. Rather this is a great example of how pessimistic leaders, analysts, and investors have become. Pessimism and optimism play a big part in cycles. Our expectations determine the prices we will pay for assets as well as the earning power of those assets. Could they also reflected loss reserves? I think so. Who cares? Its all an interesting observation of human nature but otherwise I could give a shit. Until I consider the how that is just one factor that is a symptom and cause of the magnified pessimism focused on the private MI industry (and for that matter financial guarantee industry more broadly). That makes me care.
Update: YTD through Nov. here: http://tapleysbluedragon.blogspot.com/2011/01/ytd-privat-mi-cure-data.html
Tapley -since we are done with philosophy- spoke with Steve Smith -head muckity muck at PMI- for a handful or two of minutes in early March. At that time, he told the CEO of PMI he had compiled MICA cure rates since 1989 and noticed that the late 80's and early 90's were all above 100 percent as interest rates came down (until 94) and the economy and real estate markets rebounded. He then asked Mr. Smith if such rates could be repeated. Mr. Smith said -off cuff- that a repeat of such rate performance would require an unemployment rate 1 percentage point lower than consensus projections.
Here's the data Tapley referenced:
Period Cures Defaults Ratio
1989 231,505 218,693 105.9%
1990 237,408 219,983 107.9%
1991 232,598 223,442 104.1%
1992 229,647 207,352 110.8%
1993 212,944 200,776 106.1%
1994 251,182 249,292 100.8%
1995 257,201 285,265 90.2%
1996 297,950 327,629 90.9%
1997 337,067 360,038 93.6%
1998 351,438 383,041 91.7%
1999 207,313 218,565 94.9%
2000 298,534 374,754 79.7%
2001 399,003 471,159 84.7%
2002 499,719 562,860 88.8%
2003 512,127 568,315 90.1%
2004 433,657 517,560 83.8%
2005 408,189 517,900 78.8%
2006 415,101 519,834 79.9%
2007 411,845 624,076 66.0%
2008 516,838 884,231 58.5%
2009 686,353 1,091,960 62.9%
Well, here we are at the end of 2010. Unemployment has done anything but outperform this year and the MICA data virtually guaranty a better than 90% full year number. YTD the rate is 94.25%. Given the state of the labor and other markets, that's pretty darn good. And though it isn't above 100% I don't think Smith or many others would have expected such a high number given the backdrop.
I didn't post the Smith interview to question his expertise. He is an expert. And looking back at all the costly capital raising by his counterparts in the industry, they probably wouldn't have expected this good of performance either. Rather this is a great example of how pessimistic leaders, analysts, and investors have become. Pessimism and optimism play a big part in cycles. Our expectations determine the prices we will pay for assets as well as the earning power of those assets. Could they also reflected loss reserves? I think so. Who cares? Its all an interesting observation of human nature but otherwise I could give a shit. Until I consider the how that is just one factor that is a symptom and cause of the magnified pessimism focused on the private MI industry (and for that matter financial guarantee industry more broadly). That makes me care.
Update: YTD through Nov. here: http://tapleysbluedragon.blogspot.com/2011/01/ytd-privat-mi-cure-data.html
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